March Madness: NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch at 3/5/10
Top 4 seeds 1s: Kentucky Wildcats (28-2), Kansas Jayhawks (28-2), Syracuse Orange (28-2), New Mexico Lobos (28-3)
Bubble Watch
Rather than take a look at each conference, let's take a slight different approach this week. There are 35 at-large bids that are up for grabs for March Madness. Here are the teams that are absolutely in the field, no questions asked coming into the final weekend of the regular season... Atlantic 10 (3): Temple Owls, Xavier Musketeers, Richmond Spiders ACC (4): Duke Blue Devils, Maryland Terrapins, Clemson Tigers, Florida State Seminoles Big XII (6): Kansas Jayhawks, Kansas State Wildcats, Baylor Bears, Missouri Tigers, Texas A&M Aggies, Texas Longhorns Big East (5): Syracuse Orange, Villanova Wildcats, West Virginia Mountaineers, Pittsburgh Panthers, Marquette Golden Eagles Big Ten (4): Ohio State Buckeyes, Purdue Boilermakers, Michigan State Spartans, Wisconsin Badgers Horizon (1): Butler Bulldogs Missouri Valley (1): Northern Iowa Panthers Mountain West (2): New Mexico Lobos, BYU Cougars SEC (3): Kentucky Wildcats, Vanderbilt Commodores, Tennessee Volunteers West Coast (1): Gonzaga Bulldogs
That makes 30 slots of the 65 already taken. We'll go under the assumption (even though that probably isn't going to be the case) that one of these teams listed above in each conference is going to take their league's automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.
(Are you paying attention Northern Iowa, Gonzaga, and Butler? You'd better not lose another game in the regular season!)
That means that 20 of the 35 at-large slots are gone. So, that being said, here's what the rest of the teams look like for those last 15 bids... Almost there... Oklahoma State Cowboys (20-9): The Cowboys' win over Kansas almost certainly locked up their spot. They'll get into the tourney for certain with one more victory either in the regular season finale against Nebraska or a win in their first game of the Big XII Tournament. Georgetown Hoyas (19-9): Thanks to strong computer rankings, the Hoyas are probably also in the field, but the Selection Committee would have some margin for question if G'Town finishes up the season with losses in five of its L/6 and a 9-10 record in the Big East (including a prospective loss in the Big East Tournament). It would behoove the Hoyas to get to 20 wins. Louisville Cardinals (19-11): A 10-7 record in the Big East, including a win at the Carrier Dome is hard to ignore for the Cardinals. Once again, they'll probably need to get to 20 though to feel safe even though they're probably comfortably in the field at this point. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (20-10): Even though Notre Dame has a few unsightly losses on their schedule, making the NCAA Tournament has always had an element of "What have you done for me lately?" in it. If that's the case, the Irish have wins against Connecticut, Georgetown, and Pittsburgh of late, all of which have come without F Luke Harangody in the lineup. One more victory should do the trick. UTEP Miners (23-5): UTEP won't need to win the C-USA Tournament to get into the field, but it'll probably take another victory or two to punch their ticket regardless. If the Miners finish 15-1 in conference and get to 25 wins after a 'W' in the conference tourney, they'll be impossible to leave home. UNLV Runnin' Rebels (22-7): Wins over BYU, New Mexico, and San Diego State probably have the Rebels in the field regardless. However, a loss to Wyoming on Saturday would be awful, and parlayed with a loss in the first round of the MWC Tournament could equal disaster. If we go under the assumption that all of these teams will do their part and pick up tickets to the dance, that would leave just nine spots left. Here's a short look at what everyone else would need to do to go dancing... (Number of wins in parentheses) Atlantic 10: Rhode Island (21) probably needs to reach 23 wins to get in and looks good for a spot. Dayton (19) and St. Louis (19) are chasing 22 wins. These two teams will meet on Saturday. The loser will probably need to reach the A-10 final to have a shot at dancing. The winner will still probably need to get to at least the semifinals of the conference tournament to get the job done. ACC: You just know that at least six ACC teams are going to get into the field, and seven seems likely. Virginia Tech (22) is just about there, but a weak OOC schedule may ultimately be its demise with a loss in the last regular season game and an early exit from the ACC Tournament. Wake Forest (18) and Georgia Tech (19) have both left a lot to be desired at this point. Tech has dropped four of its L/6, while Wake has lost four straight. Both looked to be locks for the tournament a few weeks ago, but now, both will need to get to at least 20, if not 21 wins to join March Madness. Big East: It's hard to think that five teams are locks and three more are almost there already for the Big East. What's even harder to fathom is that South Florida (18), Seton Hall (17), Connecticut (17), and Cincinnati (16) all still believe that they have chances of getting in. One might. Any more than that would be a surprise. UConn has the best resume of them all, but a questionable overall record and just a 7-10 record in conference. The Huskies need at least two more wins to be in the discussion. Both USF and Seton Hall are going to need to get through at least two Big East foes, which could include an elimination game against each other. The UConn/South Florida game on Saturday is huge. Big Ten: What happened to Illinois (18)? All of a sudden, the Illini need two more wins, which looked like a slam dunk a few weeks ago. Both Minnesota (17) and Northwestern (19) are going to have a shot, but those chances are slim at best. Either one would need to go to at least the semifinals, if not the finals of the Big Ten Tournament to go dancing. Conference USA: Memphis (22) is heading in the right direction right now, while UAB (23) is going the wrong way. The Tigers have a huge series sweep over the Blazers to their credit, which could help come next Sunday. Look for a prospective semifinal in the C-USA Tournament between these two teams to be an elimination game. The winner would feel a lot better with an automatic bid though, because even at 25 wins, no C-USA team is safe, save UTEP. Mountain West: San Diego State (21) has won five out of six and hasn't lost to a team not named BYU or New Mexico since January 13th. Still, the Aztecs have work to do, including winning at Air Force this weekend and doing some damage in the MWC Tournament to feel safe. Odds have it, if the Mountain West is sending four teams, SDSU is going to have to beat either the Lobos, Cougars, or Rebels in the conference tourney. Pac-10: Ugh. This has been the conference of disgust all season long. California (20) has the nation's best SOS ranking, which probably leaves it in the field with a couple of wins in the Pac-10 Tournament, but fellow bubble dwellers Arizona State (21) and Washington (20) both need to reach the Pac-10 final to have a shot. SEC: Florida (20) is probably in the field right now, but if it loses at Rupp Arena on Sunday, things could get hairy. If the Gators run into Mississippi State (21) or Mississippi (20) in the SEC Tournament, that could be a bubble battle. All three of these teams need to reach at least 22, if not 23 wins. And the rest... Utah State (24), St. Mary's (24), Murray State (28), Siena (24), and Old Dominion (23) should all be eyeing their conference titles to lock up spots in the NCAA Tournament. Each has its own gripe to get into the field with 25+ wins though, and should any of these teams stumble, the rest of the bubble residents are going to be a lot more uncomfortable.
... Let the Madness continue...  |
Everyone has their own opinions for who should be in and who should be out of the NCAA Tournament. Here at Fanway, we have a take of our own, and we'll give you the low down on what teams should be very wary about their position in the Field of 65 heading into another fantastic weekend of college basketball action...
